Status of SSG

We bought SSG at the same time as DXD and QID. The latter two have broken support and had to sell them this morning. SSG seems to be bouncing off it's support level which is promising for this position. Also, if this support level holds, it speaks poorly for the market in general. This position is short the semi-conductor sector. This sector usually goes south prior to the rest of the market. SSG bottoming at this level would say that the market is going to go south shortly.

SOLD DXD and QID

Just sold DXD this morning since it closed below it's support level last Friday.



Also sold QID this morning as it also broke it's support level on Friday (the lowest red line).

Bought GSG (Commodities Index)

GSG is the ETF representing the Goldman Sachs Commodities Index. We just purchased this at $31.59 and expect it to reach $34.00 without too much resistance. This would be about an 8% gain. It has much greater potential in the longer term. We aren't going to give it much room to go the wrong way before we would get out. I have set the stop at $30.59 which gives a two to 1 risk to reward ratio. In the worst case it should be supported by the increasing red line but I expect it to advance more in line with the yellow line.

Sold Silver

Our Silver position (SLV) was sold yesterday after it broke support of the last pivotpoint (See the red line marked "Stop Line". It seems to have stopped what was a somewhat organized new trend. Historically silver and the market in general move differently from each other. As of late they have been moving in tandem. I don't think this position is offering enough return potential in the intermediate time period for the risk it is showing. Maybe we will have another day. Made an 8% profit over the course of 25 days.

New Positions

Click on any chart to get a closer view.

SSG: This is short the Semiconductor sector. You can see that price has made a swooping bottom and has started up. The red line projecting from the last price bar to the first target price is at the same slope most of the other "up" moves this ETF has made. You can also see on the bottom indicator that this is very oversold and has just moved up through a level that says we should expect an up move now. The first target is based from the last previous resistance level. The red line just beneath the price is our stop level. If price ever closes below this line we will absolutely and completely sell. The stop is 8.5% away. The first target price is at $32.71 which would be a 20% gain. This gives us a risk to reward of 2.3:1 which is enough to take a position. We need to be right less than half the time in order to at least break even.

DXD: This is an ETF that shorts the Dow. This looks similar to SSG in the fact it appears to have put in a bottom. The indicator below has also turned up and gave us a buy signal. We bought at $39.40 which is only 3% from our stop level and 13% to our first target. This gives us an excellent risk to reward ratio of 4:1.

QID: This is an ETF that shorts the Nasdaq. We bought at $27.25 with a stop level at $25.80 and first target of $31.50. This gives us a risk to reward of 3:1. Again, if price closes below our stop we will absolutely sell the position.

I expect our first targets to be hit within two weeks time based upon the slope that previous advances have taken. This would be in the neighborhood of 15% return on these positions in that period of time.

May the force be with us!